AlphaStyle — Go To War

Executive Summary

The thesis · Gate reality check · Why the plan hits them

The 6.74x ROAS was real. We found exactly what drove it. The account abandoned the winning playbook and replaced it with broken structure. The fix is known: kill the wrong campaign, relaunch Supreme+Bape interest targeting with the NBA YoungBoy video creative, rebuild the three-campaign funnel from February. That's the entire diagnosis.

$118K

12-Month Revenue

$954

Peak Daily Revenue (Dec)

4.15x

Supreme+Bape ROAS (real)

$6,827

Identifiable Wasted Spend

Gate Reality Check — Based on Real Account Data

Gate	Target	Verdict	Real Timeline	What Unlocks It
Gate 1	$2K/day · 2x ROAS	STRETCH	Days 10–14 if preconditions met	Fund $28K+ · Fix checkout (92% abandon) · NBA YB creative Day 1
Gate 2	$4K/day · 3x ROAS	ADJUSTED	Days 25–35 (not Week 3)	Gate 1 confirmed · UGC delivered · Supreme+Bape scaled · Aus/NZ traction
Gate 3	$6K/day · 4x ROAS	FLAGGED	Days 45–60 (or Fall 2026)	Best-ever Meta ROAS was 2.16x. 4x requires near-double best performance at 3x spend. Realistic in November puffer season.

Gate 3 Honest Math: $6K/day × 4x ROAS = $24K/day revenue = 81 purchases/day at $294 AOV. Account currently generates 0.5 purchases/day. That's 162x increase in 30 days. By Day 30 it will be mid-May — puffer season over in all US markets. Set Day 30 as Gate 3 setup, not confirmation. True Gate 3 is an October 2026 objective with this season's learnings.

The Three Things That Win or Lose This

Fix checkout before scaling. 92% abandon rate. At $2K/day spend, every dollar amplifies this loss. Fix Stripe 3DS (switch from "Required" to "Recommended" in Stripe Radar), enable Shop Pay + PayPal Express same day.
NBA YoungBoy video + Supreme+Bape audience = the proven combination. This specific pairing drove 32.17x ROAS in February. Replicate it on Day 1. Don't wait for anything else.
Fund the account today. $355 left. $28K needed for Gate 1. This is not optional context — it's the single decision that determines if any of this happens.

Diagnostic

Real Shopify + Meta data · Product truth · Revenue reality

12-Month Revenue Truth (Shopify API, 419 Orders)

Month	Revenue	Orders	AOV	Daily Avg	Note
Oct 2025	$7,579	26	$291	$253	Pre-season ramp
Nov 2025	$24,567	68	$361	$819	Puffer season opens
Dec 2025	$28,615	72	$397	$954 ← PEAK	Best month ever
Jan 2026	$23,850	70	$341	$795	Still strong
Feb 2026	$13,594	38	$358	$453	Meta 6.74x ROAS
Mar 2026	$3,175	21	$151	$106	Puffer cliff (-77%)
Apr 2026	$2,680	13	$206	$134 ← now	Bottom of season

86% revenue cliff December → April. This is a puffer jacket brand in spring. Every scaling decision must account for this seasonality. The opportunity is real — $954/day organic peak exists — but it requires a fall-season Meta strategy, not an April one.

Hero Products (Top 10 by 12-Month Revenue)

#	Product	Price	Inventory	Units Sold	Revenue	% Total
1	Kudu Double Hood Down Jacket	$456	3,122	92	$40,627	28.9%
2	Kudu Cozy 2-in-1 Puffer [Matte]	$319	1,707	30	$10,992	7.8%
3	Kudu Gen Double Hood 2.0	$456	3,562	21	$8,160	5.8%
4	AlphaStyle Kudu Puffer [OG3Three]	$440	1,856	15	$7,018	5.0%
5	AlphaStyle Kudu Puffer [OG3Three Darkshine]	$625	528	10	$6,250	4.4%
8	Sevier Knitted Beanie	$38	—	47	$1,794	1.3%
9	Yance Cargo Zip Joggers	$80	2,564	21	$1,674	1.2%

Bundle insight: The Sevier Knitted Beanie has been organically bought with the Kudu jacket 18 times without a bundle prompt. Add it as a featured upsell on all Kudu PDPs — 20 minutes of work, guaranteed AOV lift to $494.

Customer Reality

Metric	Value	Benchmark	Verdict
One-time buyers	88.5%	75% fashion DTC	Crisis — every $1 Meta dies at first purchase
New York orders	171 = 40.8% of revenue	—	NYC-centric brand — geo-target NYC in ads
Avg LTV	$331	$150–300 fashion DTC	Above average — fix retention to unlock it
Repeat purchase gap	32 days avg	—	Post-purchase email at Day 30 = perfect timing
Discount code usage	58% of orders	<25% healthy	Margin leak — move to gated email capture

Dead Weight (Hide from Ads Immediately)

Product	Inventory	Stranded Value	Sales
Kang Tie-Dye Hooded Down Jacket	314	$141,300	0 — NEVER SOLD
Kudu Max Matte [Limited Edition]	63	$75,600	0 — NEVER SOLD
Kizan Classic Sweatpants	482	$42,416	0 — NEVER SOLD
Gale Baggy Convertible Pants	974	$66,232	Zero in 90 days
Apex Washed Hoodie	591	$38,415	Zero in 90 days

Also: 17 active products with zero/negative inventory still live — any paid traffic hitting these bounces with no purchase possible. Archive or draft immediately.

Meta Ads Audit

90-day real data · What drove 6.74x · $6,827 wasted · Path to 2x

Account balance: $355. Burn rate: $210/day. Runway: 40 hours. Fund minimum $10,000 before any other action.

90-Day Account Performance

Campaign	Spend	ROAS	Purchases	Revenue	Action
HM \| Prospecting \| Purchase	$4,738	1.57x	20	$7,461	Reactivate (Supreme+Bape ad set only)
GTW \| Prospecting \| Purchase April	$3,871	0.26x	7	$1,000	KILL NOW
HM \| DABA \| Prospecting	$1,942	1.41x	9	$2,739	Reactivate
HM \| DPA \| Retargeting	$1,212	1.81x	5	$2,189	Refresh + relaunch
HM \| Retargeting \| Purchase	$1,144	0.25x	3	$280	Archive

What Drove the 6.74x ROAS (February 2026)

Root cause identified from API data: The "Supreme + Bape" interest ad set generated 4.15x ROAS at $1,591 spend. Within it, the specific creative "Video | EXP NBA Young Boy OG 3 | PP" posted 32.17x ROAS (early signal, small spend). The "Video | EXP NOW LIVE. The ALPHA NEVE | PP - Copy" posted 18.87x ROAS. These were the actual drivers.

The GTW campaign launched Feb 7 with different creative, disrupted the learning phase, and ROAS collapsed from that date forward. Everything since has been the brand paying the price of that structural mistake.

Ad Set Performance Leaders vs Wasters

Ad Set	ROAS	Spend	Verdict
Supreme + Bape	4.15x	$1,591	The golden goose — rebuild around this immediately
Website 180d (DPA Retarg)	2.02x	$1,086	Works — 14x frequency now, refresh and relaunch
Burberry \| Givenchy \| YSL	1.71x	$398	Expand: add Amiri, Fear of God, Rhude
Frequent Travelers	0.27x	$3,147	Wrong audience entirely — $2,293 burned
Social Engagers (retargeting)	0.26x	$1,078	Engagement ≠ purchase intent — $798 burned
Large Coat Reel 1	0x	$680	55K views, 0 purchases — viral content, wrong objective

Why GTW Prospecting Has $2.91 CPM (Red Flag)

Normal US fashion CPM: $12–17. GTW campaign CPM: $2.91. This means the campaign is serving primarily on Audience Network (mobile apps), international cheap inventory, or Reels with zero purchase intent. The campaign targets US + ALL of Europe + Japan + Canada in one ad set. Meta dumps spend into cheapest available inventory — that's not your customer.

Audience Inventory — What's Ready to Use

49 custom audiences total. Key usable assets sitting idle:

US 2% LAL — All Purchasers ✅ — Not in any active campaign
US 2% LAL — Top 10 Spenders ✅ — Not in any active campaign
Checkout No Purchase 30d, ATC No Purchase 30d, View Content 60d ✅
OG IG 365, IG Engagers 180d ✅

Missing: Video viewer audiences (25/50/75/95% of NBA YB content = 55K+ warm viewers), 7-day checkout abandon, High-AOV customer LAL ($400+)

Brand + Visual Audit

Identity fragmentation · Imagery gaps · Social · The real positioning opportunity

Three-Way Identity Fragmentation

Lane	Products	Price	Implied Customer	Problem
Technical Outerwear	Kudu puffers	$319–$1,200	Affluent streetwear, cold urban	Revenue engine — undersold
Music/Hip-Hop Collab	NBA YoungBoy, OG3Three	$35–$625	Hip-hop youth, culture-forward	Best credibility — buried
Contemporary Fashion	SS26 VERVE, blazers, flared trousers	$118–$238	Fashion week aspirant	No customer for this yet

The sale addiction is eroding brand equity. "Regular: $625 → Sale: $319" is permanent. When a product is perpetually 50% off, the regular price becomes fictional. This trains customers to wait for a deal instead of desiring the product at full price. The Kudu should never be discounted in cold traffic ads.

The Positioning Opportunity That's Being Missed

Multicultural urban Canada is unclaimed. Raised by Wolves owns Canadian wilderness heritage. Dime owns skate minimalism. Nobody is speaking to the kid from Scarborough, Brampton, or Burnaby who grew up with hip-hop, has Caribbean or South Asian or East African roots, and wants a premium outerwear brand that actually sees them. The NBA YoungBoy collab is the key that opens this door — it's buried in a dropdown.

Product Imagery Critical Gaps

Missing: 2-in-1 transformation sequence (the product's #1 differentiator is never shown)
Missing: Detail shots of TPU phone pocket, hands-free strap, hood mechanism — features that justify $456
Missing: On-body shots across size range (M vs XXL looks very different)
Missing: City/outdoor lifestyle — the Kudu is a city jacket with no city photography
Missing: UGC wall on PDP — zero social proof at a $300-600 price point
~70% studio product-only, ~30% lifestyle — need to flip this ratio

Organic Social Gaps

Platform	Status	Problem
Instagram @alphastyle.official	33K followers, 165 posts	1-1.5 posts/week — severely under-posting. Multiple handles (@alphastyle, @alphastyleglobal) fragmenting audience. Bio says "The Official Website" — no hook, no brand line.
TikTok	Handle exists, zero traction	Primary discovery engine for 18-28 year olds — completely untapped. No product review content, no try-on hauls, no 2-in-1 demo content surfacing.
UGC	Exists in wild (@ofresh tagged Kudu)	No aggregation, no repost strategy, no branded hashtag. Customer pride of ownership is free content being left on the table.

Reference Brand Teardowns

What to steal · How to apply it · Specific executions for AlphaStyle

01 — REPRESENT CLOTHINGThe Founder-Led Drop Machine · £93.4M revenue 2024

Why relevant: Closest spiritual analog. Premium streetwear ($145-285), founder-driven, 70% DTC. Built community through the process of building the brand, not through performance hacks.

Steal: Hook formula — Product in motion, 2-second hold, then founder text overlay: "THIS IS WHY WE BUILD." Or founder-to-camera: "We made this for one reason..." → product reveal.

Steal: Color grade — Desaturated mid-tones, lifted shadows, slight film grain. Think Fuji Velvia pushed one stop. 3800-4200K. Industrial backdrop. Never warm.

Steal: Editing pace — Slow-cut with ONE punctuated fast sequence. 3-4 second holds on hero, then 4 rapid detail cuts (collar, cuff, zipper, texture). 20-25s runtime.

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ COLD OPEN: Kudu texture close-up, hand │ │ running along arm seam. No sound. 2 sec. │ │ │ │ CUT: Founder, dimly lit studio, Kudu │ │ Double Hood, all black. │ │ │ │ HOOK: "We built this for -40°C. Turns │ │ out it looks better than anything else │ │ in your closet." │ │ │ │ 4 FAST CUTS: zipper, chest badge, hem, │ │ collar fold │ │ │ │ HOLD: Full-length shot, urban backdrop │ │ CTA: "Explore the Collection →" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ Grade: Desaturated cool-neutral, 4000K Music: Low-tempo instrumental, no vocals

AlphaStyle Execution: Founder holds Kudu in minimal studio, 2 sentences about why they built it (no script). Cut to texture close-ups (6s). Clean brand card. Run cold + broad targeting.

02 — MADHAPPYCommunity-Values Playbook · $150-350 hoodies

Why relevant: Product isn't radically different from competitors — the brand has a reason to exist. Community-first before product-first. Celebrities sought them out, they never paid for influencers.

Steal: Identity angle — First 3 seconds are never about the product. It's about the feeling. "Made for who you're becoming." Then product enters frame.

Steal: Color grade — Kodak Portra 400 emulation. Warm golden fill light. Lifted shadows (never crushed blacks). 5000-5500K. Approachable. Feels like a good day.

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ STATIC: Model in Kudu puffer, standing │ │ outside, early morning, breath visible. │ │ Natural, candid, unbothered. Hold 3s. │ │ │ │ FADE IN TEXT: "Built in Canada. │ │ Worn wherever winter finds you." │ │ │ │ CUT: Product detail, clean bg, warm side │ │ light. Logo. │ │ │ │ CAPTION: "The Kudu. For people who don't │ │ stop when it gets cold." │ │ CTA: "Shop the Drop" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ Grade: Portra 400, golden AM light, 5200K Audience: Warm / retargeting / LAL only

AlphaStyle Execution: Community quote static — customer quote overlaid on editorial shot: "I've owned $2,000 jackets. The Kudu is the one I actually reach for." — [First name, city]. Run to warm audiences.

03 — MOOSE KNUCKLESCanadian Premium Outerwear Blueprint · $700-2,000

Why relevant: Same country. Same climate. Same positioning challenge — "why pay this much for a jacket?" Their answer: body-conscious fit, youthful irreverence, the sexiest cold-weather advertising you've ever seen. "We're the streetwear brand in outerwear."

Steal: Price justification — Lead with the question, then answer it visually. Never explain the price — demonstrate the value. "You know who you are" positioning.

Steal: High-contrast drama — Strong lighting contrast, unexpected settings, movement-forward. Not safe catalog photography. Confidence signals quality.

AlphaStyle Execution: Reframe vs. Canada Goose (no name used): "The alternative. Same Canadian winter. $400 less." Static, high contrast, Kudu detail shot. Run to cold audiences with price anchor.

04 — TRUE CLASSICThe Performance Meta Formula · $150M in 2 years DTC

Why relevant: Not for aesthetic — for Meta formula. $150M in 2 years via direct response. 10-20 new creatives per week. Before/after fit reveal. Price anchor copy. Split-screen problem/solution. This is the scaling playbook.

Steal: Volume discipline — Test 8+ creatives simultaneously. Kill anything <$100 spend without performance. Scale winners 15% every 3 days.

Steal: Price anchor formula — "Less than 3 pairs of Jordans. Lasts 10 winters." This copy formula outperforms narrative ads for cold traffic conversion.

AlphaStyle Execution: Static with copy: "Less than a Canada Goose. Better than either of them." Clean product on dark background. Price shown. CTA: "See why." Run broad, high volume, let Meta optimize.

Meta Account Structure

3-campaign architecture · Exact naming · Day-by-day launch · Kill/scale thresholds

Phase 1 Architecture — $2,000/day

Campaign 1: AS | P1 | ASC | MAIN | 0422 — $900/day (45%)

Type: Advantage+ Shopping Campaign — replicates the Feb DABA structure that drove 2.16x ROAS

Geo: Canada (BC, AB, ON, QC, NS) primary. No US until checkout confirmed fixed.

Ads at launch (6 minimum):

Ad Name	Format	Source
AS\|P1\|VID\|NBAYB-KUDU-V1\|0422	NBA YoungBoy video (EXACT REPLICATION of Feb winner)	Existing — CRITICAL
AS\|P1\|VID\|NEVE-LAUNCH-V1\|0422	"NOW LIVE. The ALPHA NEVE" video — 18.87x ROAS creative	Existing — CRITICAL
AS\|P1\|SM\|KUDU-HOOD-REVEAL\|0422	Stop motion — double hood reveal sequence	Shoot Day 1
AS\|P1\|STA\|KUDU-CLEAN-PRICE\|0422	Static, hero jacket, clean bg, price shown	Product photos
AS\|P1\|STA\|CANADA-GOOSE-COMP\|0422	Price anchor — "Canadian outerwear. $300 less."	Design Day 1
AS\|P1\|CAR\|FULL-KIT\|0422	Carousel — Kudu + Cargo + Beanie with prices	Product photos

Campaign 2: AS | P1 | RTGT | WARM | 0422 — $600/day (30%)

Type: Manual ABO — 5 retargeting ad sets, each with separate budget control

Ad Set	Audience	Budget	Exclusion
CHKOUT-7D	Checkout Abandon 7 days	$150	All Purchasers
CHKOUT-30D	Checkout Abandon 30 days	$120	+CHKOUT-7D
ATC-30D	ATC No Purchase 30d	$120	+Checkout audiences
SITE-VIS-30D	All Visitors 30d	$120	+ATC + Checkout + Purchasers
OG-IG-365	OG IG 365 Engagers	$90	+Site Visitors + Purchasers

Creative per ad set: DPA catalog for checkout/ATC audiences. Static with urgency ("Still thinking about it?") for site visitors. Brand/lifestyle for IG engagers.

Campaign 3: AS | P1 | PROS | LAL | 0422 — $500/day (25%)

Ad Set	Audience	Budget	Note
LAL2-TOP-SPENDERS	US 2% LAL — Top 10 Spenders	$200	Currently idle — your best prospecting audience
LAL2-ALL-PURCHASERS	US 2% LAL — All Purchasers	$200	Currently idle — activate immediately
SUPREME-BAPE	Supreme, Bape, Palace, Off-White, Kith	$100	Rebuilt from the 4.15x winner — new creatives only

Day-by-Day Launch Plan

Day 1

META Kill GTW Prospecting April. Fund account $10K+. Launch 3-campaign structure with 6 creatives. STORE Enable Shop Pay + PayPal Express. Archive 132 dead-weight products. Add Beanie upsell to Kudu PDPs. Fix Stripe Radar: 3DS → Recommended. KLAVIYO Begin building Abandoned Cart flow.

Day 3

META Check CTR only. Kill any ad with 0 clicks after $20 spend. NO budget changes yet. KLAVIYO Complete Abandoned Cart + SMS. Activate. Begin Welcome Series.

Day 7

META First real optimization. Kill creatives <1x ROAS after $100 spend. Scale winners 15% if ROAS ≥2x. Check CAPI event match quality — must be >7.0. KLAVIYO Welcome + Post-Purchase flows live. CREATIVE UGC creator first check-in — confirm Day 14 delivery.

Day 14

META GATE 1 CHECK. Pass if ASC ≥2x ROAS AND retargeting ≥3.5x AND CAPI match >70%. If yes → launch Phase 2. If no → diagnose before scaling. CREATIVE UGC Video 1 delivered and live in ASC.

Day 15

META Launch Phase 2: Fresh ASC ($800/day, UGC only) + Broad Interest CBO (Supreme+Bape expand: add Amiri, Fear of God, Rhude, Stussy). Scale P1 campaigns 20%.

Day 17

META Launch Aus/NZ puffer campaign — $100/day test. Same creative, Sydney + Melbourne + Auckland geo. Entering their May-August winter. If Week 1 ROAS ≥1.5x: scale to $300/day Week 3.

Day 21

META Gate 2 check. Build video viewer audience from NBA YB views (55K+ warm, unused). KLAVIYO Win-Back flow live.

Kill / Scale Thresholds

Level	KILL Signal	HOLD	SCALE Signal	Action
Campaign (7d)	<0.8x ROAS, >$500 spend	0.8–1.5x	≥2x for 5 days	Pause / +15% budget
Ad Set (5d)	<1x after $200 spend	1–2x	≥3x, freq <3.0	Pause / +20% budget
Creative	CTR <0.5% after $30 OR <1.5x ROAS after $100	1.5–2.5x	≥2.5x after $100	Pause / move to ASC
Frequency	>4.0 (prospecting)	2–4x	<2.0	Kill + refresh creative

Rules: Max 30% budget increase per day. Wait 3 days after budget change. Reduce 50% before pausing. Never pause a learning ASC. Duplicate before testing — never modify a live winner.

Creative Production Plan

Every ad for 30 days · Hooks written · Shot list · UGC brief

Phase 1 Ads (Days 1-14, $2K/day)

Ad	Format	Hook (exact first 3s)	Copy	Gate
AS\|P1\|VID\|NBAYB-KUDU-V1	Celebrity video	[NBA YoungBoy wearing Kudu, no sound, 2 sec]	"The jacket they chose. The Kudu."	Day 1
AS\|P1\|SM\|KUDU-HOOD-REVEAL	Stop motion	[Double hood reveal in 3 frames, text: "WAIT."]	"Two jackets. Zero compromise. The Kudu 2-in-1."	Day 1
AS\|P1\|VID\|LIFESTYLE-CITY	Lifestyle 20s	[Model walking in winter city, jacket fully on, hood up, dawn light]	"Built for this. $456."	Day 1
AS\|P1\|STA\|KUDU-CLEAN-PRICE	Static	Hero jacket, white bg, large price: "$456"	"Less than a Canada Goose. Better in ways that matter."	Day 1
AS\|P1\|STA\|COMP-CG	Comparison static	Split: "$900+ vs $456" — both jackets (no name on CG)	"Same winter. $450 saved."	Day 1
AS\|P1\|CAR\|FULL-KIT	Carousel 3-frame	Frame 1: Kudu jacket hero. Frame 2: Cargo pants. Frame 3: Beanie.	"The full kit. Everything you need for winter."	Day 1
AS\|P1\|UGC\|REVIEW-01	UGC video 30s	[Customer unboxing, real reaction: "I don't know how to explain it..."]	Caption only: "Real customer. Real Kudu."	Day 14
AS\|P1\|SM\|KUDU-V2-DARK	Stop motion V2	[Darkshine colorway reveal, matte finish in dramatic light]	"Shadow Signal. The Kudu Darkshine."	Day 14

Hook Library — 20 Written for AlphaStyle

Problem/Solution (5)

"I used to spend $900 on Canada Goose every winter. Then I found out what they were actually made of."
"The jacket you actually need isn't the one everyone's wearing. The Kudu."
"Why does everyone's winter jacket look the same? This is the answer."
"I got stopped three times in one day. All three asked where the jacket was from."
"I've owned $1,500 jackets. This $456 one is the only one I reach for."

Identity (5)

"The jacket for the kid who figured it out."
"If you know AlphaStyle, you already know."
"Not everyone's going to get it. That's the point."
"Some jackets tell people you spent money. The Kudu tells them something else."
"Built in Canada. Recognized everywhere."

Feature Reveal (5)

"Wait until you see what this hood does. [pause] Two hoods. Same jacket."
"The only jacket with a built-in phone pocket rated for -40°C."
"You can carry it on your shoulder without a bag. Watch."
"Matte finish. 700-fill goose down. The Kudu Double Hood."
"Here's how you turn one jacket into two in under 5 seconds."

Social Proof (5)

"NBA YoungBoy wears the Kudu. This is why."
"Straight from NYFW to your block."
"They wore it at NYFW. You can wear it everywhere else."
"Over 10,000 Canadian winters survived. The Kudu keeps going."
"Our customers say it's the last jacket they'll ever buy. Here's why."

One-Day Photoshoot Shot List (6 Blocks, ~80-100 deliverables)

Block	Time	Shots	Key Deliverables
1 — Hero Clean Bg	45 min	12–15	White + dark bg, all colorways, front/back/side. Ghost mannequin for size. Price card option.
2 — Lifestyle City	60 min	20–25	Urban location (parkade, alley, building steps). Full outfit + jacket only. Day + dusk light. NYC-coded aesthetic.
3 — Detail/Feature Shots	30 min	15–20	Hood mechanism (detach sequence 4 frames), TPU phone pocket, zipper pull, fabric texture close-up, tag shot.
4 — Full Outfit Styling	45 min	12–16 per look × 4 looks	Look 1: Kudu + Cargo + clean sneaker. Look 2: OG3Three edition + graphic tee. Look 3: Darkshine + all black. Look 4: Kudu + Beanie bundle.
5 — Group/Social	45 min	12–15	3 people, diverse cast, multicultural urban Canada aesthetic (Madhappy reference). Candid, not posed. Winter city.
6 — Movement/Action	30 min	8–10 + video clips	Walking toward camera, hood pull in wind, jacket in motion. 5-10 short video clips for stop motion source material.

Klaviyo Flow Stack

9 flows built · 25 checkouts → 2 purchases is the emergency · CASL compliance

The checkout abandonment problem is worth $6,762/day in lost revenue at current volume. At a conservative 5% recovery rate from flows: +$44K–$60K/month before touching a single ad. Build this first.

Flow Build Priority

Flow

Trigger + Logic

Sequence

Build

Abandoned Cart

Started Checkout, no purchase after 1hr. 3 emails + 2 SMS.

3E + 2S

WEEK 1

Checkout Abandon

Checkout Started, no Complete Purchase in 2hr. Separate from Cart.

2E + 1S

WEEK 1

Welcome Series

List Subscribe (non-purchaser). 10% offer gated at Email 4.

WEEK 1

Browse Abandon

2+ product views, no ATC, inactive 4hr.

WEEK 1

Post-Purchase

Order Placed. Conf → Shipping → Review → Upsell Day 21.

WEEK 1

Win-Back

60/90/120 day no purchase — escalating offers.

3E (tiered)

WEEK 2

VIP

2nd purchase placed. Early access + monthly perk.

WEEK 2

Back-in-Stock

OOS product restocked. 1 SMS + 2 emails.

1S + 2E

WEEK 3+

Sunset / Hygiene

180+ days no engagement. 3-email exit before suppression.

WEEK 3+

Abandoned Cart — Full Sequence

Touch	Timing	Subject Line	Content/Hook
Email 1	1hr after abandon	"Still there, [First Name]"	Cart contents shown. No discount. Urgency: "The Kudu sells out in winter."
SMS 1	2hrs	—	"[First name], your Kudu cart is waiting. [84 chars max] [link]"
Email 2	24hrs	"What's holding you back?"	Social proof angle (collab, reviews). Address shipping/returns objection. Soft urgency.
SMS 2	26hrs	—	"Your cart expires soon. Don't let someone else get your size. [link]"
Email 3	72hrs	"10% off — just this once."	One-time 10% code. Hard 48hr expiry. Clear CTA. Suppressed if they've already gotten a Welcome discount.

⚠️ CASL: Canadian subscribers require explicit double opt-in for SMS. Consent must be stored separately. Non-compliance = up to CAD $10M fine.

Revenue Projection from Flows

Scenario	Meta Spend	Estimated Email Revenue/Month	% of Total
Current (no flows)	$210/day	~$0	0%
Gate 1 + flows live	$2K/day	$47K–$72K	~25-30%
Gate 3 + full stack	$6K/day	$141K–$215K	~25-30%

30-Day Unified Calendar

Every action across every lane on one grid

5 Most Critical Days

Day	Date	Why It's Critical
Day 1	Apr 22	Kill GTW. Fund account. Launch new structure. Fix checkout. Everything starts or stops here.
Day 4	Apr 25	Abandoned Cart flow goes live. First optimization window for ads.
Day 12	May 3	All Week 1 flows active. First UGC delivered. Email machine online.
Day 14	May 5	GATE 1 CHECK. 2x ROAS pass/fail → Phase 2 decision. No passing = diagnose, don't scale.
Day 21	May 12	GATE 2 CHECK. Creative fatigue audit. Aus/NZ data assessed. Phase 3 decision.

Week-by-Week Calendar

Week 1: April 22–28

Day 1

META Kill GTW, fund $10K+, launch 3-campaign structure with NBA YB + stop motion + 4 statics. STORE Enable Shop Pay + PayPal Express, archive 132 dead-weight products, beanie upsell on Kudu PDPs. KLAVIYO Begin Abandoned Cart build.

Day 2

KLAVIYO Complete Abandoned Cart + SMS. Begin Welcome Series. STORE Re-list delisted winners: Percy Cargo Joggers, Yance Cargo, Mancos Track Jacket. Kill WELCOME10 public code.

Day 3

META CTR check only. Kill 0-click ads after $20. No budget changes. CREATIVE Brief UGC creators — hard deadline Day 14 delivery.

Day 4

KLAVIYO Abandoned Cart + Checkout Abandon flows LIVE. Test with a real cart. CREATIVE Photoshoot Day 1 — 6 blocks, 80+ deliverables.

Day 7

META First optimization — kill creatives <1x ROAS after $100. Scale winners 15% if ROAS ≥2x. Verify CAPI event match >7.0. KLAVIYO Welcome Series + Browse Abandon live. EMAIL Send 1: "New in AlphaStyle" — re-engage full list, show re-listed products.

Week 2: April 29 – May 5

Day 8

META Review Week 1 ROAS. Scale winning ad sets 15% if ≥2x. KLAVIYO Post-Purchase flow live.

Day 10

EMAIL Send 2: "The Kudu. Before it's gone for the season." — urgency on puffers closing window.

Day 12

CREATIVE UGC Video 1 delivered. Upload to ASC immediately. META Build Checkout Abandon 7d audience — tightest retargeting signal.

Day 14

META GATE 1 CHECK. ASC ≥2x AND retargeting ≥3.5x? YES → Phase 2 launch. NO → diagnose, do NOT scale. EMAIL Send 3: "Spring kit is ready" — cargos, track jackets, lighter pieces.

Week 3: May 6–12

Day 15

META Launch Phase 2 if Gate 1 passed: Fresh ASC $800/day (UGC-only) + Broad Interest CBO $400/day (Amiri, Fear of God, Stussy, Rhude). Scale P1 campaigns 20%.

Day 17

META Launch Aus/NZ test $100/day. Same creative, Sydney + Melbourne + Auckland. EMAIL Send 4: Feature email — stop motion format, hook: "Wait until you see this."

Day 21

META GATE 2 CHECK. Build video viewer audience (55K warm viewers from NBA YB video — unused). KLAVIYO Win-Back flow live. EMAIL Send 5: VIP early access if drop ready.

Week 4: May 13–21

Day 22-25

META Phase 3 prep if Gate 2 hit. Assess Aus/NZ ROAS — if ≥1.5x scale to $300/day. CREATIVE UGC Video 2 delivered. Group lifestyle shoot (Madhappy reference). Stop Motion V3.

Day 28

EMAIL Send 6: "Back for summer" — SS26 pieces, spring angle, lifestyle photography.

Day 30

META 30-day review. Document all winning creatives and audiences for Fall 2026. Build AW26 launch plan. Begin October pre-season planning. $6K/day is a fall objective.

Risk Register + Timeline

Honest gate assessment · Top 10 risks · Decision trees

Gate Reality (Quantitative)

Gate	Target	Verdict	Purchases/Day Needed	Current	Multiplier
Gate 1	$2K/day · 2x ROAS	STRETCH	13.6/day	0.5/day	27x
Gate 2	$4K/day · 3x ROAS	ADJUSTED	40.8/day	0.5/day	82x
Gate 3	$6K/day · 4x ROAS	FALL 2026	81/day	0.5/day	162x

Risk Register

Risk

Prob

Impact

Mitigation

Account runs dry mid-campaign

CERTAIN

CRITICAL

Fund $10K+ today. Set auto-pay at $500 threshold. Never run on prepay.

Checkout still broken at launch (92% abandon)

HIGH

CRITICAL

Day 1: Enable Shop Pay + PayPal Express. Fix Stripe 3DS. Hard rule: no spend >$500/day until checkout CVR >20%.

Creative bottleneck — no NBA YB video Day 1

HIGH

Audit existing content Day 1. Any UGC? Repurpose immediately. Launch statics while video is produced. Founder iPhone video is a valid fallback.

Learning phase trap (0.5 purchases/day)

HIGH

Consolidate to 1-2 ad sets max at launch. Fix checkout → purchases → exit learning. Consider Add-to-Cart optimization as bridge.

Seasonal mismatch — puffers in May/June

HIGH

Geo-restrict puffer campaigns to Canada only. Pivot US budget to graphic tees ($38-68) as TOFU pixel builders. Launch Aus/NZ Day 17.

iOS attribution gap — kills look lower than real

MED

Compare Meta ROAS vs Shopify-attributed weekly. Use Shopify as truth signal for kill decisions. Never kill on Meta-reported alone.

UGC creator delivers late (Week 3)

MED

Brief 2 creators Day 1 (redundancy). Hard delivery deadline: Day 12. Founder iPhone backup if both miss.

DPA retargeting audience exhausted (14x freq)

MED

New DPA campaign with fresh catalog and new creative. Frequency cap 3x/week. Split into 7d/30d/60d windows.

Supreme+Bape saturates at $2K/day

MED

LOW

Expand to: Off-White, Palace, Stussy, Fear of God, Rhude, Amiri — test each at $50/day separately. Watch frequency >3.5 as saturation signal.

Sale addiction eroding brand equity

LOW

HIGH (long-term)

Kill all public discount codes. Move discounts to gated email capture only. No discount in cold traffic ads ever.

Decision Tree

If ROAS <1x by Day 7:

Check CAPI in Events Manager — is Purchase firing with value?
Do a live checkout test — is the site broken?
Check CPM — if <$5, you're in wrong placements (Audience Network)
Pause 2 worst ad sets. Do NOT pause ASC MAIN.
Launch 2 fresh creatives immediately.

If Gate 1 is Missed by Day 14:

Don't scale. Don't panic. Diagnose.
Identify the single biggest conversion leak (checkout, creative, audience, attribution)
Fix that one thing. Stay at current spend level for 7 more days.
Gate 1 becomes Day 21. Gate 2 becomes Day 35. Gate 3 becomes Fall 2026.

KPI Scorecard

Monday morning review · Kill/scale thresholds · North stars

Weekly Scorecard — Monday Morning (30 minutes)

KPI

Current

Gate 1

Gate 2

Gate 3

2026 Benchmark

Meta ROAS (reported)

0.26x

≥2x

≥3x

≥4x

2.9x avg fashion

Shopify ROAS (attributed)

~0.7x (est)

≥1.7x

≥2.5x

≥3.5x

Use as truth signal

Meta Spend/Day

$210

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

—

CPA (Meta)

$1,100+

≤$147

≤$98

≤$74

$38 fashion avg

Checkout CVR

≥20%

≥28%

≥32%

30-35% industry

CTR (prospecting)

2.06-2.52%

≥2%

≥2.5%

≥3%

2.84% avg 2026

CPM

$2.91 (GTW)

$10-18

$12-20

$14 avg fashion

Frequency (prospecting)

2.3-3.6x

<3.5x

<3.0x

<2.5x

1.5-3x target

Email Rev % of Total

~0%

≥15%

≥20%

≥25%

20-30% fashion DTC

Repeat Purchase Rate

11.5%

≥15%

≥20%

≥25%

24.4% fashion avg

CAPI Match Quality

Unknown

≥7.0

≥8.0

≥8.5

7+ = minimum

The 3 North Star Numbers

MER

Marketing Efficiency Ratio
Total Revenue ÷ Total Ad Spend
Target: ≥2.5x by Day 14

CPA:AOV

Cost Per Acquisition vs Order Value
Currently 3.74x (paying 374% of AOV)
Target: ≤0.5x (CPA < $147)

Email%

Email Revenue as % of Total
Currently 0%. Benchmark: 20-30%
Target: 15%+ by Week 3

Checkout%

Checkout → Purchase CVR
Currently 8% (broken)
Target: 20%+ by Day 7

The bottom line: AlphaStyle has already hit 6.74x Shopify ROAS. The brand, the product, and the audience infrastructure exist. The account simply abandoned the formula that worked. Supreme+Bape interest targeting + NBA YoungBoy video creative + clean DPA retargeting = the proven playbook. Fix checkout so conversions don't evaporate, rebuild the three-campaign structure, and the brand's best performance history is the floor — not the ceiling.

AlphaStyleGo To War

Gate Reality Check — Based on Real Account Data

The Three Things That Win or Lose This

12-Month Revenue Truth (Shopify API, 419 Orders)

Hero Products (Top 10 by 12-Month Revenue)

Customer Reality

Dead Weight (Hide from Ads Immediately)

90-Day Account Performance

What Drove the 6.74x ROAS (February 2026)

Ad Set Performance Leaders vs Wasters

Why GTW Prospecting Has $2.91 CPM (Red Flag)

Audience Inventory — What's Ready to Use

Three-Way Identity Fragmentation

The Positioning Opportunity That's Being Missed

Product Imagery Critical Gaps

Organic Social Gaps

Phase 1 Architecture — $2,000/day

Day-by-Day Launch Plan

Kill / Scale Thresholds

Phase 1 Ads (Days 1-14, $2K/day)

Hook Library — 20 Written for AlphaStyle

Problem/Solution (5)

Identity (5)

Feature Reveal (5)

Social Proof (5)

One-Day Photoshoot Shot List (6 Blocks, ~80-100 deliverables)

Flow Build Priority

Abandoned Cart — Full Sequence

Revenue Projection from Flows

5 Most Critical Days

Week-by-Week Calendar

Week 1: April 22–28

Week 2: April 29 – May 5

Week 3: May 6–12

Week 4: May 13–21

Gate Reality (Quantitative)

Risk Register

Decision Tree

If ROAS <1x by Day 7:

If Gate 1 is Missed by Day 14:

Weekly Scorecard — Monday Morning (30 minutes)

The 3 North Star Numbers

AlphaStyle
Go To War